The best indicator for USX (USX)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real USX (USX) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Bollinger Mean-Reversion
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for USX (USX) over ~1.4 years — beating buy-and-hold by 24.7% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 25.6% | 1.57 | -9.3% | 75.0% | 8 | 24.7% |
| 2 | CCI ✓ | Daily | -0.1% | 0.1 | -17.6% | 38.5% | 13 | -1.0% |
| 3 | RSI Trend (>50) | Daily | -29.3% | -0.36 | -64.5% | 42.9% | 56 | -30.2% |
| 4 | Rate of Change | Daily | -36.0% | -0.54 | -68.5% | 43.8% | 73 | -36.9% |
| 5 | EMA 20/50 Cross | Daily | -26.1% | -1.39 | -38.8% | 75.0% | 8 | -27.0% |
| 6 | EMA-10 Trend | Daily | -47.0% | -0.84 | -75.8% | 45.1% | 82 | -47.9% |
| 7 | Heikin-Ashi Trend | Daily | -77.1% | -1.25 | -87.4% | 46.4% | 84 | -78.0% |
| 8 | Donchian Midline | Daily | -22.7% | -2.11 | -32.9% | 36.8% | 19 | -23.7% |
| 9 | MACD | Daily | -40.9% | -2.94 | -52.3% | 18.5% | 27 | -41.8% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For USX (USX), Bollinger Mean-Reversion on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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