The best indicator for Stellar (XLM)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Stellar (XLM) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
EMA-10 Trend
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Stellar (XLM) over ~12.4 years — beating buy-and-hold by 37.6% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Daily | 51.6% | 0.91 | -59.4% | 39.4% | 264 | 37.6% |
| 2 | MACD ✓ | Daily | 36.7% | 0.77 | -76.3% | 35.2% | 105 | 22.8% |
| 3 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Weekly | 48.5% | 0.75 | -75.7% | 35.2% | 71 | 22.8% |
| 4 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Daily | 35.0% | 0.74 | -90.1% | 44.8% | 538 | 21.0% |
| 5 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | 34.3% | 0.74 | -80.7% | 37.8% | 156 | 20.3% |
| 6 | Rate of Change ✓ | Daily | 31.7% | 0.71 | -75.6% | 44.2% | 190 | 17.8% |
| 7 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 30.5% | 0.69 | -76.2% | 38.2% | 76 | 16.5% |
| 8 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 25.0% | 0.63 | -79.5% | 32.7% | 150 | 11.1% |
| 9 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Daily | 23.0% | 0.62 | -87.0% | 38.6% | 57 | 9.1% |
| 10 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 20.4% | 0.58 | -77.1% | 42.6% | 47 | 6.4% |
| 11 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 9.7% | 0.47 | -88.0% | 28.6% | 14 | -16.0% |
| 12 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 7.3% | 0.4 | -80.1% | 56.0% | 50 | -6.6% |
| 13 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 0.2% | 0.32 | -92.5% | 18.2% | 33 | -13.8% |
| 14 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | -6.8% | 0.29 | -90.4% | 34.4% | 32 | -32.5% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Stellar (XLM), EMA-10 Trend on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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