The best indicator for Monero (XMR)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Monero (XMR) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Heikin-Ashi Trend
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Monero (XMR) over ~8.6 years — beating buy-and-hold by 29.9% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Weekly | 41.2% | 0.86 | -50.1% | 50.0% | 70 | 29.9% |
| 2 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 11.4% | 0.51 | -44.5% | 76.5% | 17 | 3.5% |
| 3 | MACD ✓ | Daily | 13.3% | 0.5 | -70.3% | 46.5% | 114 | 5.5% |
| 4 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 11.8% | 0.47 | -83.6% | 45.0% | 20 | 0.6% |
| 5 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 5.8% | 0.39 | -82.1% | 34.6% | 26 | -5.4% |
| 6 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 2.8% | 0.28 | -80.9% | 59.1% | 44 | -5.1% |
| 7 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 1.3% | 0.28 | -73.8% | 59.1% | 44 | -6.6% |
| 8 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Daily | 1.4% | 0.25 | -61.3% | 41.7% | 60 | -6.5% |
| 9 | ADX / DMI | Daily | 1.4% | 0.25 | -70.4% | 47.3% | 91 | -6.4% |
| 10 | Rate of Change ✓ | Daily | -1.8% | 0.24 | -89.7% | 48.0% | 204 | -9.6% |
| 11 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | -3.7% | 0.23 | -89.7% | 41.9% | 43 | -14.9% |
| 12 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 6.6% | 0.37 | -85.5% | 77.8% | 9 | -4.6% |
| 13 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | -4.4% | 0.21 | -87.7% | 35.7% | 28 | -15.6% |
| 14 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | -3.2% | 0.24 | -87.6% | 25.0% | 12 | -14.4% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Monero (XMR), Heikin-Ashi Trend on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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