The best indicator for Brent Crude (BZ)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Brent Crude (BZ) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Donchian Breakout
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Brent Crude (BZ) over ~18.6 years — beating buy-and-hold by 4.5% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 5.6% | 0.36 | -54.2% | 40.3% | 72 | 4.5% |
| 2 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 5.0% | 0.35 | -43.0% | 37.5% | 112 | 3.9% |
| 3 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 5.0% | 0.33 | -51.7% | 38.6% | 44 | 3.9% |
| 4 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 5.1% | 0.33 | -43.4% | 41.3% | 63 | 3.9% |
| 5 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 3.5% | 0.26 | -49.3% | 40.5% | 42 | 2.3% |
| 6 | Rate of Change ✓ | Daily | 2.8% | 0.24 | -65.8% | 41.0% | 295 | 1.7% |
| 7 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 3.0% | 0.24 | -69.3% | 43.8% | 89 | 1.8% |
| 8 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 2.6% | 0.23 | -61.0% | 38.6% | 57 | 1.4% |
| 9 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 1.8% | 0.2 | -66.2% | 55.6% | 18 | 0.6% |
| 10 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 1.8% | 0.19 | -51.9% | 30.0% | 20 | 0.6% |
| 11 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 1.4% | 0.17 | -47.9% | 33.3% | 18 | 0.2% |
| 12 | Donchian Midline | Daily | 0.5% | 0.15 | -71.1% | 38.2% | 267 | -0.6% |
| 13 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 1.0% | 0.15 | -57.4% | 37.5% | 64 | -0.2% |
| 14 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 0.0% | 0.12 | -57.4% | 25.0% | 20 | -1.1% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Brent Crude (BZ), Donchian Breakout on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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