The best indicator for 10Y T-Note (ZN)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real 10Y T-Note (ZN) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
ADX / DMI
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for 10Y T-Note (ZN) over ~25.8 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.1% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) | Weekly | 0.4% | 0.13 | -24.0% | 65.2% | 23 | 0.1% |
| 2 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion | Weekly | 0.3% | 0.12 | -18.9% | 60.0% | 25 | -0.0% |
| 3 | Stochastic | Weekly | 0.3% | 0.1 | -19.5% | 68.8% | 32 | -0.1% |
| 4 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 0.3% | 0.09 | -11.5% | 40.0% | 35 | -0.1% |
| 5 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 0.1% | 0.05 | -13.2% | 30.6% | 49 | -0.2% |
| 6 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 0.1% | 0.05 | -11.9% | 44.4% | 18 | -0.2% |
| 7 | CCI | Weekly | 0.1% | 0.05 | -21.2% | 64.5% | 31 | -0.2% |
| 8 | Holy Grail Confluence | Weekly | -0.1% | -0.02 | -22.8% | 75.0% | 8 | -0.4% |
| 9 | EMA 20/50 Cross | Daily | -0.2% | -0.02 | -19.0% | 29.0% | 62 | -0.5% |
| 10 | Money Flow Index | Daily | -0.2% | -0.02 | -26.2% | 47.7% | 65 | -0.5% |
| 11 | Williams %R | Weekly | -0.2% | -0.02 | -21.1% | 57.9% | 38 | -0.5% |
| 12 | EMA 50/200 Cross | Daily | -0.2% | -0.03 | -20.5% | 18.2% | 22 | -0.6% |
| 13 | CCI | Daily | -0.3% | -0.06 | -16.2% | 63.9% | 122 | -0.7% |
| 14 | EMA 20/50 Cross | Weekly | -0.4% | -0.06 | -20.2% | 22.2% | 18 | -0.7% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For 10Y T-Note (ZN), ADX / DMI on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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