The best indicator for Coffee (KC)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Coffee (KC) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
WaveTrend (8/6/4)
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Coffee (KC) over ~26.3 years — beating buy-and-hold by 4.2% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 7.1% | 0.4 | -43.1% | 64.2% | 106 | 4.2% |
| 2 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 5.4% | 0.36 | -41.7% | 59.5% | 163 | 2.5% |
| 3 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 3.9% | 0.28 | -60.2% | 43.5% | 92 | 0.9% |
| 4 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 3.9% | 0.28 | -50.3% | 35.0% | 123 | 1.0% |
| 5 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 3.6% | 0.27 | -52.2% | 40.9% | 22 | 0.7% |
| 6 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 3.4% | 0.26 | -59.1% | 38.1% | 21 | 0.5% |
| 7 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion | Daily | 2.8% | 0.26 | -33.5% | 65.0% | 100 | -0.1% |
| 8 | CCI | Daily | 3.1% | 0.25 | -39.7% | 63.8% | 130 | 0.3% |
| 9 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 2.8% | 0.24 | -63.6% | 41.2% | 17 | -0.2% |
| 10 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 2.0% | 0.23 | -28.3% | 62.1% | 29 | -0.9% |
| 11 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 2.4% | 0.22 | -51.8% | 33.3% | 24 | -0.5% |
| 12 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 1.9% | 0.2 | -54.4% | 35.4% | 79 | -1.0% |
| 13 | Williams %R ✓ | Daily | 1.8% | 0.19 | -41.5% | 60.4% | 182 | -1.1% |
| 14 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 3.3% | 0.25 | -64.8% | 40.0% | 10 | 0.4% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Coffee (KC), WaveTrend (8/6/4) on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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