The best indicator for Copper (HG)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Copper (HG) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
MACD
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Copper (HG) over ~25.9 years — beating buy-and-hold by 1.5% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 9.4% | 0.58 | -41.7% | 44.2% | 52 | 1.5% |
| 2 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | 1-Hour | 5.9% | 0.51 | -22.6% | 30.8% | 39 | -1.0% |
| 3 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 8.1% | 0.49 | -47.9% | 35.7% | 56 | 0.2% |
| 4 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | 1-Hour | 4.8% | 0.47 | -18.4% | 43.5% | 46 | -2.1% |
| 5 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 5.7% | 0.46 | -27.8% | 76.0% | 25 | -2.1% |
| 6 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 6.7% | 0.44 | -54.8% | 35.1% | 74 | -1.1% |
| 7 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 6.8% | 0.44 | -45.0% | 50.6% | 83 | -1.1% |
| 8 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 6.1% | 0.41 | -53.3% | 37.0% | 73 | -1.8% |
| 9 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.4% | 0.4 | -48.4% | 35.0% | 20 | -1.6% |
| 10 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | 1-Hour | 3.8% | 0.39 | -23.3% | 42.0% | 181 | -3.0% |
| 11 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 5.8% | 0.38 | -55.9% | 36.4% | 22 | -2.1% |
| 12 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 4.6% | 0.35 | -37.8% | 47.6% | 21 | -3.2% |
| 13 | ADX / DMI | Weekly | 4.0% | 0.32 | -57.4% | 41.0% | 39 | -3.9% |
| 14 | Money Flow Index ✓ | Weekly | 3.3% | 0.31 | -34.4% | 80.0% | 15 | -4.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Copper (HG), MACD on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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