The best indicator for Crude Oil (CL)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Crude Oil (CL) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Donchian Midline
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Crude Oil (CL) over ~25.9 years — beating buy-and-hold by 4.1% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 8.2% | 0.43 | -44.2% | 40.6% | 69 | 4.1% |
| 2 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 4.8% | 0.31 | -62.8% | 42.1% | 19 | 0.7% |
| 3 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 3.2% | 0.25 | -61.7% | 38.1% | 21 | -0.9% |
| 4 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 3.2% | 0.25 | -53.4% | 36.5% | 63 | -1.0% |
| 5 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | 3.1% | 0.25 | -60.4% | 40.4% | 371 | -1.0% |
| 6 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 3.2% | 0.25 | -73.1% | 73.1% | 26 | -0.9% |
| 7 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | 3.2% | 0.25 | -73.4% | 69.6% | 23 | -0.9% |
| 8 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 3.0% | 0.24 | -48.8% | 40.2% | 82 | -1.1% |
| 9 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 2.7% | 0.23 | -52.5% | 38.5% | 130 | -1.4% |
| 10 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | 1-Hour | 1.7% | 0.22 | -21.3% | 61.1% | 90 | -1.2% |
| 11 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 2.3% | 0.21 | -55.0% | 41.9% | 62 | -1.8% |
| 12 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 2.2% | 0.21 | -55.5% | 38.4% | 86 | -1.9% |
| 13 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 1.0% | 0.17 | -74.4% | 38.5% | 382 | -3.1% |
| 14 | Donchian Breakout | Weekly | 1.2% | 0.16 | -51.7% | 33.3% | 21 | -2.9% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Crude Oil (CL), Donchian Midline on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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