The best indicator for Natural Gas (NG)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Natural Gas (NG) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
WaveTrend (8/6/4)
On the 1-hour chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Natural Gas (NG) over ~7.6 years — beating buy-and-hold by 13.5% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | 1-Hour | 14.0% | 0.56 | -37.7% | 62.9% | 197 | 13.5% |
| 2 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | 1-Hour | 7.9% | 0.48 | -29.4% | 68.0% | 103 | 7.4% |
| 3 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | 1-Hour | 8.2% | 0.4 | -44.0% | 42.4% | 33 | 7.7% |
| 4 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 5.0% | 0.32 | -43.1% | 71.0% | 31 | 6.5% |
| 5 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | 1-Hour | 4.9% | 0.32 | -35.2% | 53.2% | 280 | 4.4% |
| 6 | Money Flow Index ✓ | Daily | 3.8% | 0.3 | -81.8% | 64.0% | 25 | 5.3% |
| 7 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 4.0% | 0.29 | -77.0% | 76.3% | 38 | 5.5% |
| 8 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | 2.7% | 0.26 | -78.1% | 66.7% | 21 | 4.2% |
| 9 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 3.3% | 0.25 | -62.3% | 56.7% | 90 | 4.8% |
| 10 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 1.2% | 0.23 | -85.4% | 44.0% | 50 | 2.8% |
| 11 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 2.7% | 0.23 | -46.5% | 75.0% | 20 | 4.2% |
| 12 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 1.8% | 0.23 | -75.9% | 73.5% | 34 | 3.3% |
| 13 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 1.0% | 0.22 | -80.3% | 58.2% | 146 | 2.5% |
| 14 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 1.5% | 0.22 | -76.2% | 73.1% | 26 | 3.0% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Natural Gas (NG), WaveTrend (8/6/4) on the 1-hour timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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