The best indicator for Gold (GC)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Gold (GC) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Donchian Breakout
On the 1-hour chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Gold (GC) over ~7.8 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.8% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | 1-Hour | 6.4% | 0.84 | -8.0% | 44.7% | 170 | -3.8% |
| 2 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Daily | 3.3% | 0.71 | -9.2% | 87.5% | 24 | -8.1% |
| 3 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | 1-Hour | 6.0% | 0.67 | -20.3% | 43.2% | 37 | -4.2% |
| 4 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | 1-Hour | 5.8% | 0.66 | -19.0% | 51.4% | 37 | -4.3% |
| 5 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 8.7% | 0.64 | -35.7% | 47.1% | 17 | -2.7% |
| 6 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | 1-Hour | 5.1% | 0.63 | -21.4% | 37.1% | 124 | -5.1% |
| 7 | Money Flow Index ✓ | 1-Hour | 4.7% | 0.6 | -13.8% | 67.0% | 103 | -5.4% |
| 8 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 10.0% | 0.71 | -31.2% | 45.5% | 11 | -1.3% |
| 9 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 6.5% | 0.51 | -34.8% | 47.4% | 76 | -4.8% |
| 10 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 5.9% | 0.51 | -40.4% | 52.4% | 21 | -5.3% |
| 11 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 5.7% | 0.5 | -35.1% | 47.3% | 55 | -5.6% |
| 12 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 4.8% | 0.49 | -28.4% | 70.3% | 148 | -6.6% |
| 13 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 4.2% | 0.49 | -29.1% | 80.6% | 36 | -7.1% |
| 14 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 3.6% | 0.47 | -15.8% | 75.3% | 97 | -7.8% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Gold (GC), Donchian Breakout on the 1-hour timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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