The best indicator for FTSE 100
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real FTSE 100 history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Bollinger Mean-Reversion
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for FTSE 100 over ~42.6 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 2.3% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 3.3% | 0.41 | -23.9% | 82.9% | 35 | -2.3% |
| 2 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 3.1% | 0.31 | -40.7% | 72.3% | 173 | -2.5% |
| 3 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 2.5% | 0.31 | -39.4% | 81.8% | 33 | -3.1% |
| 4 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 2.8% | 0.3 | -47.6% | 50.0% | 32 | -2.8% |
| 5 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 2.7% | 0.3 | -46.4% | 80.4% | 56 | -2.9% |
| 6 | Donchian Midline | Weekly | 2.4% | 0.28 | -50.8% | 39.4% | 127 | -3.1% |
| 7 | EMA 20/50 Cross | Weekly | 2.5% | 0.27 | -45.5% | 55.0% | 20 | -3.1% |
| 8 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | 2.5% | 0.27 | -54.3% | 78.6% | 28 | -3.1% |
| 9 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 2.2% | 0.25 | -44.4% | 43.8% | 32 | -3.4% |
| 10 | Heikin-Ashi Trend | Weekly | 2.1% | 0.25 | -49.3% | 49.9% | 377 | -3.5% |
| 11 | RSI Trend (>50) | Weekly | 2.1% | 0.24 | -44.9% | 46.7% | 122 | -3.5% |
| 12 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 2.0% | 0.24 | -56.4% | 77.5% | 40 | -3.6% |
| 13 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 2.1% | 0.23 | -41.3% | 69.3% | 218 | -3.6% |
| 14 | CCI ✓ | Daily | 2.0% | 0.23 | -34.3% | 74.3% | 206 | -3.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For FTSE 100, Bollinger Mean-Reversion on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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