The best indicator for DAX (Germany)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real DAX (Germany) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Donchian Midline
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for DAX (Germany) over ~38.6 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.2% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 7.5% | 0.58 | -31.3% | 51.0% | 98 | -1.2% |
| 2 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.4% | 0.49 | -45.0% | 75.0% | 20 | -2.3% |
| 3 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 6.0% | 0.49 | -38.7% | 47.9% | 96 | -2.6% |
| 4 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 5.2% | 0.47 | -31.2% | 63.6% | 33 | -3.5% |
| 5 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 5.7% | 0.44 | -49.6% | 56.5% | 23 | -3.0% |
| 6 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 6.1% | 0.46 | -47.0% | 57.1% | 14 | -2.5% |
| 7 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 4.7% | 0.41 | -43.7% | 51.9% | 81 | -4.0% |
| 8 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | 4.7% | 0.4 | -52.1% | 41.1% | 508 | -4.0% |
| 9 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 3.3% | 0.4 | -19.9% | 69.7% | 33 | -5.4% |
| 10 | EMA-10 Trend | Weekly | 4.6% | 0.4 | -45.4% | 47.4% | 175 | -4.1% |
| 11 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 4.3% | 0.38 | -45.9% | 41.0% | 534 | -4.3% |
| 12 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 4.4% | 0.38 | -42.3% | 47.2% | 127 | -4.2% |
| 13 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 4.3% | 0.37 | -39.2% | 41.1% | 95 | -4.3% |
| 14 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 3.4% | 0.33 | -32.6% | 44.2% | 181 | -5.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For DAX (Germany), Donchian Midline on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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