The best indicator for Hang Seng
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Hang Seng history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
MACD
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Hang Seng over ~38.6 years — beating buy-and-hold by 1.4% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EMA-10 Trend | Daily | 9.2% | 0.64 | -67.4% | 39.1% | 805 | 3.1% |
| 2 | MACD ✓ | Daily | 7.4% | 0.54 | -44.9% | 39.7% | 365 | 1.4% |
| 3 | RSI Trend (>50) | Daily | 7.2% | 0.53 | -55.1% | 38.0% | 519 | 1.1% |
| 4 | Donchian Midline | Daily | 6.8% | 0.49 | -55.6% | 37.9% | 512 | 0.7% |
| 5 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 6.6% | 0.48 | -34.6% | 50.0% | 72 | 0.6% |
| 6 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Daily | 4.6% | 0.46 | -31.3% | 43.8% | 160 | -1.5% |
| 7 | EMA-10 Trend | Weekly | 6.2% | 0.46 | -49.9% | 44.1% | 188 | 0.2% |
| 8 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.2% | 0.45 | -43.2% | 44.9% | 89 | 0.2% |
| 9 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 5.7% | 0.43 | -42.6% | 45.3% | 106 | -0.3% |
| 10 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 5.6% | 0.41 | -48.1% | 43.4% | 106 | -0.4% |
| 11 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 5.2% | 0.4 | -53.2% | 52.8% | 125 | -0.7% |
| 12 | Rate of Change | Daily | 4.9% | 0.38 | -65.2% | 41.3% | 600 | -1.2% |
| 13 | Heikin-Ashi Trend | Daily | 4.3% | 0.34 | -73.2% | 45.8% | 1986 | -1.8% |
| 14 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 4.1% | 0.32 | -56.7% | 42.3% | 26 | -1.9% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Hang Seng, MACD on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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