The best indicator for Nvidia (NVDA)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Nvidia (NVDA) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Donchian Midline
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Nvidia (NVDA) over ~27.3 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 7.1% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | 30.0% | 0.84 | -73.8% | 41.2% | 347 | -7.1% |
| 2 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 30.2% | 0.82 | -59.8% | 45.0% | 60 | -6.8% |
| 3 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 34.3% | 0.87 | -70.1% | 78.6% | 14 | -2.7% |
| 4 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 31.3% | 0.8 | -69.0% | 49.4% | 79 | -5.5% |
| 5 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 31.6% | 0.84 | -75.0% | 71.4% | 14 | -5.4% |
| 6 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 26.9% | 0.78 | -63.4% | 42.6% | 359 | -10.1% |
| 7 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Daily | 26.5% | 0.78 | -57.7% | 41.2% | 587 | -10.5% |
| 8 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 28.7% | 0.77 | -72.2% | 54.7% | 53 | -8.1% |
| 9 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 28.9% | 0.77 | -69.3% | 51.6% | 128 | -7.9% |
| 10 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 27.4% | 0.76 | -78.5% | 50.6% | 77 | -9.3% |
| 11 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 28.1% | 0.75 | -66.8% | 49.3% | 75 | -8.6% |
| 12 | MACD ✓ | 1-Hour | 41.9% | 1.29 | -24.5% | 46.3% | 175 | -30.7% |
| 13 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 23.4% | 0.74 | -70.3% | 48.6% | 109 | -13.6% |
| 14 | RSI Trend (>50) | 1-Hour | 40.0% | 1.25 | -34.5% | 37.9% | 219 | -32.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Nvidia (NVDA), Donchian Midline on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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