The best indicator for Tesla (TSLA)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Tesla (TSLA) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Bollinger Breakout
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Tesla (TSLA) over ~15.9 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 11.6% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Daily | 29.8% | 0.95 | -49.9% | 42.4% | 66 | -11.6% |
| 2 | MACD ✓ | Daily | 33.6% | 0.91 | -51.5% | 44.6% | 157 | -7.8% |
| 3 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Weekly | 34.8% | 0.89 | -56.7% | 49.0% | 147 | -8.2% |
| 4 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 27.1% | 0.8 | -53.9% | 43.3% | 30 | -15.9% |
| 5 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 23.5% | 0.76 | -44.5% | 46.9% | 64 | -17.8% |
| 6 | Money Flow Index ✓ | Daily | 19.3% | 0.74 | -48.5% | 82.4% | 17 | -22.0% |
| 7 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | 25.0% | 0.74 | -70.2% | 36.3% | 223 | -16.3% |
| 8 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 24.9% | 0.73 | -62.3% | 51.9% | 79 | -18.1% |
| 9 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 23.6% | 0.72 | -69.1% | 37.6% | 221 | -17.7% |
| 10 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 21.5% | 0.72 | -51.1% | 42.6% | 101 | -19.8% |
| 11 | Rate of Change ✓ | Daily | 23.7% | 0.72 | -65.0% | 44.9% | 254 | -17.6% |
| 12 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Daily | 22.1% | 0.69 | -63.7% | 41.3% | 363 | -19.3% |
| 13 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 22.2% | 0.66 | -65.1% | 40.0% | 15 | -19.1% |
| 14 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 20.7% | 0.65 | -63.8% | 35.0% | 40 | -20.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Tesla (TSLA), Bollinger Breakout on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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