The best indicator for Cardano (ADA)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Cardano (ADA) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Bollinger Breakout
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Cardano (ADA) over ~12.4 years — beating buy-and-hold by 33.0% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Daily | 47.1% | 0.93 | -64.3% | 35.3% | 51 | 33.0% |
| 2 | Rate of Change ✓ | Daily | 62.8% | 0.93 | -78.3% | 37.2% | 180 | 48.7% |
| 3 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | 53.9% | 0.93 | -83.7% | 38.7% | 150 | 39.8% |
| 4 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Daily | 52.4% | 0.85 | -78.1% | 39.5% | 276 | 38.3% |
| 5 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 51.3% | 0.84 | -79.0% | 42.4% | 139 | 37.2% |
| 6 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Daily | 51.7% | 0.84 | -81.8% | 42.9% | 532 | 37.6% |
| 7 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Weekly | 96.3% | 0.8 | -76.4% | 40.8% | 71 | 71.1% |
| 8 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 37.5% | 0.79 | -68.9% | 38.1% | 42 | 23.4% |
| 9 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 31.5% | 0.75 | -81.0% | 45.5% | 22 | 17.3% |
| 10 | ADX / DMI | Daily | 40.5% | 0.75 | -81.0% | 40.2% | 82 | 26.4% |
| 11 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 31.9% | 0.71 | -70.5% | 25.8% | 31 | 6.8% |
| 12 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 28.9% | 0.67 | -71.1% | 25.0% | 16 | 3.7% |
| 13 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 33.5% | 0.71 | -64.6% | 35.7% | 14 | 8.4% |
| 14 | MACD ✓ | Daily | 24.2% | 0.63 | -86.4% | 33.6% | 107 | 10.0% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Cardano (ADA), Bollinger Breakout on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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