The best indicator for Ethereum (ETH)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Ethereum (ETH) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
RSI Trend (>50)
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Ethereum (ETH) over ~12.4 years — beating buy-and-hold by 25.1% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 39.0% | 0.91 | -55.7% | 43.7% | 142 | 25.1% |
| 2 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | 35.4% | 0.86 | -51.4% | 38.2% | 152 | 21.5% |
| 3 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Weekly | 39.4% | 0.83 | -76.6% | 43.4% | 76 | 18.0% |
| 4 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 35.3% | 0.82 | -61.3% | 42.9% | 14 | 13.9% |
| 5 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Daily | 24.1% | 0.74 | -40.5% | 47.3% | 55 | 10.1% |
| 6 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 25.6% | 0.73 | -48.0% | 38.4% | 86 | 11.6% |
| 7 | Rate of Change | Daily | 26.6% | 0.72 | -66.2% | 40.2% | 199 | 12.6% |
| 8 | Heikin-Ashi Trend | Daily | 25.2% | 0.72 | -69.2% | 46.0% | 544 | 11.3% |
| 9 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 36.4% | 0.82 | -57.0% | 46.2% | 13 | 15.0% |
| 10 | Donchian Breakout | Daily | 24.5% | 0.71 | -61.2% | 48.8% | 43 | 10.5% |
| 11 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Daily | 24.1% | 0.69 | -59.6% | 41.3% | 286 | 10.1% |
| 12 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 23.2% | 0.67 | -70.2% | 42.3% | 26 | 9.3% |
| 13 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 25.1% | 0.67 | -66.1% | 35.3% | 34 | 3.7% |
| 14 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 22.3% | 0.63 | -67.4% | 41.2% | 17 | 0.9% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Ethereum (ETH), RSI Trend (>50) on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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