The best indicator for US Agg Bond (AGG)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real US Agg Bond (AGG) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
EMA 20/50 Cross
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for US Agg Bond (AGG) over ~22.7 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.8% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 2.3% | 0.64 | -11.3% | 57.9% | 38 | -0.8% |
| 2 | Bollinger Breakout | Weekly | 1.4% | 0.54 | -7.6% | 65.0% | 20 | -1.7% |
| 3 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 1.6% | 0.51 | -8.7% | 59.5% | 42 | -1.5% |
| 4 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 1.5% | 0.51 | -8.5% | 55.6% | 18 | -1.5% |
| 5 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 1.7% | 0.5 | -7.8% | 46.6% | 58 | -1.3% |
| 6 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 2.3% | 0.56 | -12.8% | 50.0% | 12 | -0.8% |
| 7 | Rate of Change | Weekly | 1.3% | 0.4 | -12.3% | 54.2% | 72 | -1.7% |
| 8 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 1.2% | 0.37 | -6.2% | 47.7% | 109 | -1.9% |
| 9 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Daily | 1.0% | 0.35 | -6.3% | 59.1% | 22 | -2.1% |
| 10 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 1.3% | 0.34 | -16.8% | 58.8% | 17 | -1.7% |
| 11 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion | Weekly | 0.8% | 0.32 | -12.7% | 76.5% | 17 | -2.3% |
| 12 | ADX / DMI | Weekly | 0.8% | 0.28 | -12.4% | 41.2% | 34 | -2.3% |
| 13 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) | Weekly | 1.0% | 0.28 | -14.0% | 87.5% | 16 | -2.1% |
| 14 | Donchian Midline | Weekly | 1.1% | 0.28 | -14.1% | 52.4% | 63 | -2.0% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For US Agg Bond (AGG), EMA 20/50 Cross on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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