The best indicator for 3x Nasdaq (TQQQ)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real 3x Nasdaq (TQQQ) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
RSI Trend (>50)
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for 3x Nasdaq (TQQQ) over ~16.4 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 13.5% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 29.5% | 0.84 | -60.7% | 58.3% | 36 | -13.5% |
| 2 | Rate of Change ✓ | Daily | 23.6% | 0.76 | -66.1% | 50.0% | 250 | -19.8% |
| 3 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 21.6% | 0.76 | -61.4% | 82.6% | 23 | -21.5% |
| 4 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Weekly | 22.9% | 0.74 | -69.7% | 57.4% | 148 | -20.2% |
| 5 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 23.5% | 0.74 | -56.7% | 62.2% | 37 | -19.5% |
| 6 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 19.4% | 0.71 | -45.3% | 49.3% | 73 | -24.0% |
| 7 | Money Flow Index ✓ | Daily | 24.5% | 0.74 | -66.1% | 92.9% | 14 | -18.9% |
| 8 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 19.4% | 0.67 | -69.1% | 46.0% | 226 | -24.0% |
| 9 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | 19.8% | 0.67 | -61.1% | 43.1% | 211 | -23.6% |
| 10 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 20.6% | 0.67 | -57.6% | 50.9% | 53 | -22.4% |
| 11 | MACD ✓ | Daily | 18.7% | 0.65 | -66.2% | 47.6% | 164 | -24.7% |
| 12 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 20.5% | 0.64 | -71.5% | 77.6% | 58 | -22.9% |
| 13 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 17.5% | 0.62 | -46.7% | 73.3% | 15 | -25.5% |
| 14 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Daily | 17.6% | 0.6 | -69.9% | 52.2% | 836 | -25.8% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For 3x Nasdaq (TQQQ), RSI Trend (>50) on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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