The best indicator for 3x S&P (SPXL)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real 3x S&P (SPXL) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Stochastic
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for 3x S&P (SPXL) over ~17.7 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 7.8% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 21.0% | 0.82 | -32.1% | 100.0% | 14 | -7.8% |
| 2 | MACD ✓ | Daily | 17.2% | 0.66 | -45.0% | 47.6% | 191 | -11.2% |
| 3 | Rate of Change ✓ | Daily | 17.0% | 0.65 | -51.8% | 49.8% | 263 | -11.3% |
| 4 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 16.7% | 0.64 | -54.1% | 63.4% | 41 | -12.2% |
| 5 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 16.6% | 0.63 | -54.7% | 50.0% | 40 | -11.7% |
| 6 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 16.1% | 0.62 | -45.2% | 62.3% | 53 | -12.8% |
| 7 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 15.2% | 0.62 | -46.0% | 62.8% | 78 | -13.7% |
| 8 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 15.1% | 0.61 | -47.9% | 67.5% | 40 | -13.8% |
| 9 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | 15.3% | 0.6 | -59.1% | 45.7% | 230 | -13.0% |
| 10 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 13.4% | 0.59 | -38.9% | 50.6% | 81 | -15.0% |
| 11 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 14.4% | 0.59 | -47.5% | 56.2% | 16 | -14.5% |
| 12 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 13.6% | 0.59 | -49.9% | 81.0% | 21 | -15.3% |
| 13 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 12.2% | 0.53 | -48.5% | 53.8% | 39 | -16.7% |
| 14 | CCI ✓ | Daily | 13.2% | 0.52 | -69.9% | 77.1% | 83 | -15.2% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For 3x S&P (SPXL), Stochastic on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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