ETF
The best indicator for -3x Nasdaq (SQQQ)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real -3x Nasdaq (SQQQ) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
No robust edge
Buy & hold won
No indicator we tested beat simply holding -3x Nasdaq (SQQQ) out-of-sample. Honest answer: for this one, the edge is patience.
-52.8%
Buy & hold CAGR
Full results
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion | Daily | -6.1% | -0.15 | -71.2% | 48.5% | 66 | 47.0% |
| 2 | RSI Mean-Reversion | Weekly | -24.4% | -0.56 | -99.4% | 12.5% | 8 | 28.4% |
| 3 | Bollinger Breakout | Weekly | -13.2% | -0.46 | -90.3% | 10.0% | 10 | 39.5% |
| 4 | RSI Trend (>50) | Weekly | -13.3% | -0.38 | -90.4% | 26.1% | 23 | 39.5% |
| 5 | ADX / DMI | Weekly | -16.7% | -0.4 | -95.3% | 0.0% | 19 | 36.1% |
| 6 | Rate of Change | Daily | -26.9% | -0.43 | -99.5% | 30.6% | 235 | 26.2% |
| 7 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion | Weekly | -21.2% | -0.63 | -98.5% | 27.3% | 11 | 31.6% |
| 8 | EMA 20/50 Cross | Daily | -22.8% | -0.48 | -98.6% | 7.4% | 27 | 30.3% |
| 9 | Money Flow Index | Daily | -23.5% | -0.54 | -99.1% | 21.4% | 14 | 29.5% |
| 10 | Donchian Breakout | Daily | -26.0% | -0.51 | -99.4% | 13.0% | 54 | 27.1% |
| 11 | Donchian Midline | Weekly | -16.6% | -0.53 | -94.9% | 33.3% | 30 | 36.2% |
| 12 | MACD | Daily | -33.3% | -0.56 | -99.9% | 24.0% | 154 | 19.7% |
| 13 | RSI Trend (>50) | Daily | -28.8% | -0.56 | -99.7% | 30.2% | 205 | 24.2% |
| 14 | ADX / DMI | Daily | -27.1% | -0.57 | -99.5% | 22.9% | 96 | 25.9% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
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