The best indicator for ARK Innovation (ARKK)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real ARK Innovation (ARKK) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
ADX / DMI
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for ARK Innovation (ARKK) over ~11.6 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.4% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 12.4% | 0.73 | -34.5% | 45.3% | 75 | -0.4% |
| 2 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 12.6% | 0.67 | -48.2% | 42.6% | 47 | -0.3% |
| 3 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 11.2% | 0.56 | -54.8% | 43.5% | 23 | -1.6% |
| 4 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 11.3% | 0.56 | -51.3% | 36.4% | 33 | -1.4% |
| 5 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 11.2% | 0.55 | -58.6% | 43.4% | 53 | -1.6% |
| 6 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 9.9% | 0.51 | -61.8% | 42.9% | 156 | -3.0% |
| 7 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Daily | 10.0% | 0.51 | -64.6% | 47.5% | 261 | -2.9% |
| 8 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 7.7% | 0.45 | -51.2% | 90.5% | 21 | -5.2% |
| 9 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | 8.1% | 0.44 | -62.9% | 37.5% | 152 | -4.7% |
| 10 | MACD ✓ | Daily | 8.0% | 0.43 | -65.5% | 41.5% | 118 | -4.9% |
| 11 | Rate of Change ✓ | Daily | 7.3% | 0.41 | -52.9% | 47.3% | 169 | -5.5% |
| 12 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 7.5% | 0.4 | -60.4% | 53.6% | 28 | -5.3% |
| 13 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 7.2% | 0.4 | -62.9% | 42.9% | 42 | -5.5% |
| 14 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 13.3% | 0.6 | -48.2% | 55.6% | 9 | 0.4% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For ARK Innovation (ARKK), ADX / DMI on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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