The best indicator for AUD/JPY
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real AUD/JPY history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
ADX / DMI
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for AUD/JPY over ~23.3 years — beating buy-and-hold by 1.3% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 2.8% | 0.49 | -20.3% | 37.1% | 143 | 1.3% |
| 2 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Daily | 3.1% | 0.37 | -40.3% | 40.7% | 1205 | 1.5% |
| 3 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 2.8% | 0.29 | -43.7% | 68.4% | 95 | 1.3% |
| 4 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 2.2% | 0.27 | -38.8% | 76.0% | 25 | 0.6% |
| 5 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 1.6% | 0.21 | -40.5% | 81.2% | 32 | 0.0% |
| 6 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 1.4% | 0.2 | -26.7% | 87.0% | 23 | -0.2% |
| 7 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 0.9% | 0.14 | -28.7% | 28.1% | 57 | -0.7% |
| 8 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 0.7% | 0.12 | -38.9% | 29.2% | 65 | -0.8% |
| 9 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 0.5% | 0.1 | -35.6% | 47.4% | 19 | -1.0% |
| 10 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 0.4% | 0.09 | -40.4% | 80.0% | 20 | -1.2% |
| 11 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 0.3% | 0.08 | -43.0% | 64.5% | 107 | -1.2% |
| 12 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 0.3% | 0.08 | -26.1% | 43.8% | 73 | -1.2% |
| 13 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | 0.2% | 0.08 | -37.6% | 82.4% | 17 | -1.4% |
| 14 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 0.7% | 0.12 | -41.7% | 50.0% | 10 | -0.9% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For AUD/JPY, ADX / DMI on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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