The best indicator for CAD/JPY
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real CAD/JPY history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
ADX / DMI
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for CAD/JPY over ~22.5 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.2% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 1.2% | 0.25 | -27.3% | 29.9% | 137 | -0.2% |
| 2 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 1.7% | 0.22 | -31.3% | 63.2% | 87 | 0.3% |
| 3 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Daily | 1.1% | 0.17 | -42.7% | 38.8% | 1166 | -0.3% |
| 4 | CCI ✓ | Daily | 0.8% | 0.14 | -20.0% | 68.7% | 115 | -0.6% |
| 5 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | 1.0% | 0.14 | -33.9% | 62.5% | 16 | -0.5% |
| 6 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 0.7% | 0.12 | -35.9% | 56.2% | 16 | -0.7% |
| 7 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 0.2% | 0.07 | -29.0% | 66.1% | 109 | -1.2% |
| 8 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 0.2% | 0.07 | -38.8% | 42.9% | 14 | -1.2% |
| 9 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 0.1% | 0.05 | -41.3% | 38.9% | 18 | -1.3% |
| 10 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 0.1% | 0.05 | -35.1% | 34.5% | 58 | -1.3% |
| 11 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 0.1% | 0.05 | -26.7% | 70.6% | 17 | -1.4% |
| 12 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | -0.0% | 0.04 | -27.9% | 62.8% | 94 | -1.4% |
| 13 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 0.0% | 0.04 | -34.4% | 29.4% | 17 | -1.4% |
| 14 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | -0.1% | 0.02 | -26.6% | 34.8% | 23 | -1.5% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For CAD/JPY, ADX / DMI on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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