The best indicator for CHF/JPY
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real CHF/JPY history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
SMA 50/200 Cross
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for CHF/JPY over ~23.2 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.4% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 3.4% | 0.44 | -25.8% | 55.6% | 18 | -0.4% |
| 2 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 2.9% | 0.39 | -19.9% | 66.7% | 93 | -0.9% |
| 3 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 2.6% | 0.34 | -28.1% | 25.0% | 16 | -1.2% |
| 4 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 2.1% | 0.34 | -28.6% | 34.2% | 149 | -1.7% |
| 5 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 2.5% | 0.34 | -19.0% | 60.0% | 15 | -1.4% |
| 6 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 1.7% | 0.23 | -24.0% | 56.5% | 85 | -2.3% |
| 7 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 1.4% | 0.22 | -26.1% | 34.9% | 63 | -2.4% |
| 8 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 1.4% | 0.22 | -21.5% | 62.9% | 105 | -2.4% |
| 9 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 0.7% | 0.21 | -99.1% | 72.2% | 18 | -3.3% |
| 10 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 0.6% | 0.21 | -99.2% | 81.5% | 27 | -3.3% |
| 11 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 2.4% | 0.21 | -99.0% | 91.3% | 23 | -1.5% |
| 12 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | 0.9% | 0.21 | -99.1% | 68.8% | 16 | -3.0% |
| 13 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 1.5% | 0.21 | -24.9% | 46.6% | 58 | -2.5% |
| 14 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 0.5% | 0.21 | -99.1% | 71.4% | 14 | -3.4% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For CHF/JPY, SMA 50/200 Cross on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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