The best indicator for AUD/NZD
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real AUD/NZD history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
ADX / DMI
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for AUD/NZD over ~23.3 years — beating buy-and-hold by 1.7% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 2.0% | 0.54 | -8.4% | 35.0% | 143 | 1.7% |
| 2 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | 1.9% | 0.41 | -18.9% | 85.7% | 21 | 1.6% |
| 3 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 1.2% | 0.35 | -10.8% | 72.7% | 22 | 0.9% |
| 4 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 0.9% | 0.22 | -11.4% | 78.6% | 28 | 0.6% |
| 5 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 0.4% | 0.11 | -10.0% | 64.5% | 31 | 0.1% |
| 6 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 0.2% | 0.07 | -13.9% | 39.3% | 61 | -0.1% |
| 7 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 0.2% | 0.07 | -19.6% | 65.2% | 23 | -0.1% |
| 8 | MACD | Daily | -0.1% | 0.01 | -22.2% | 35.8% | 226 | -0.4% |
| 9 | Rate of Change | Weekly | -0.1% | 0.01 | -25.1% | 39.4% | 71 | -0.3% |
| 10 | EMA 20/50 Cross | Daily | -0.1% | 0.0 | -23.6% | 26.8% | 56 | -0.4% |
| 11 | MACD | Weekly | -0.1% | -0.0 | -22.4% | 39.2% | 51 | -0.4% |
| 12 | Heikin-Ashi Trend | Weekly | -0.4% | -0.07 | -28.0% | 38.0% | 200 | -0.7% |
| 13 | RSI Mean-Reversion | Daily | -0.4% | -0.09 | -16.2% | 50.0% | 36 | -0.7% |
| 14 | RSI Trend (>50) | Daily | -0.5% | -0.09 | -32.2% | 26.8% | 306 | -0.9% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For AUD/NZD, ADX / DMI on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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