The best indicator for Bitcoin Strategy (BITO)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Bitcoin Strategy (BITO) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
MACD
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Bitcoin Strategy (BITO) over ~4.6 years — beating buy-and-hold by 18.1% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rate of Change | Weekly | 12.3% | 0.48 | -29.3% | 33.3% | 15 | 17.7% |
| 2 | MACD ✓ | Daily | 10.9% | 0.47 | -58.6% | 46.2% | 39 | 18.1% |
| 3 | Bollinger Breakout | Daily | 9.0% | 0.46 | -29.3% | 28.6% | 21 | 16.3% |
| 4 | RSI Trend (>50) | Daily | 8.9% | 0.42 | -47.9% | 33.9% | 56 | 16.2% |
| 5 | EMA 20/50 Cross | Daily | 13.6% | 0.54 | -32.3% | 40.0% | 10 | 20.9% |
| 6 | ADX / DMI | Daily | 5.2% | 0.33 | -25.6% | 40.0% | 25 | 12.4% |
| 7 | Donchian Midline | Weekly | 10.8% | 0.46 | -39.1% | 50.0% | 10 | 16.2% |
| 8 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Daily | 7.1% | 0.37 | -51.7% | 75.0% | 12 | 14.3% |
| 9 | Donchian Midline | Daily | 2.0% | 0.23 | -43.3% | 41.7% | 60 | 9.3% |
| 10 | CCI ✓ | Daily | 1.0% | 0.21 | -41.6% | 73.9% | 23 | 8.3% |
| 11 | RSI Trend (>50) | Weekly | 2.3% | 0.24 | -47.6% | 50.0% | 12 | 7.7% |
| 12 | EMA-10 Trend | Weekly | -3.4% | 0.09 | -48.6% | 28.6% | 21 | 2.0% |
| 13 | Stochastic | Daily | -3.0% | 0.09 | -44.7% | 73.3% | 30 | 4.3% |
| 14 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) | Daily | -4.9% | 0.06 | -59.8% | 58.8% | 17 | 2.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Bitcoin Strategy (BITO), MACD on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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