The best indicator for Cotton (CT)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Cotton (CT) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Donchian Midline
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Cotton (CT) over ~26.5 years — beating buy-and-hold by 2.8% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 4.2% | 0.31 | -57.6% | 42.7% | 75 | 2.8% |
| 2 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 3.4% | 0.28 | -57.2% | 39.5% | 157 | 2.0% |
| 3 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 3.6% | 0.28 | -57.8% | 38.5% | 78 | 2.3% |
| 4 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 3.3% | 0.26 | -37.4% | 48.0% | 50 | 1.9% |
| 5 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 2.3% | 0.24 | -39.9% | 74.4% | 39 | 0.9% |
| 6 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 2.7% | 0.24 | -45.5% | 69.7% | 152 | 1.3% |
| 7 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 2.6% | 0.23 | -58.2% | 37.9% | 29 | 1.3% |
| 8 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 2.1% | 0.2 | -63.5% | 43.8% | 16 | 0.7% |
| 9 | MACD ✓ | Daily | 1.8% | 0.19 | -69.2% | 38.1% | 257 | 0.4% |
| 10 | SMA 50/200 Cross | Daily | 1.5% | 0.18 | -67.8% | 35.3% | 17 | 0.1% |
| 11 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 1.6% | 0.18 | -46.4% | 50.0% | 22 | 0.2% |
| 12 | Williams %R | Daily | 1.5% | 0.17 | -60.2% | 67.6% | 176 | 0.1% |
| 13 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 1.4% | 0.17 | -44.6% | 37.5% | 24 | 0.0% |
| 14 | Donchian Midline | Daily | 1.3% | 0.16 | -62.5% | 34.0% | 356 | -0.1% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Cotton (CT), Donchian Midline on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
More commodity
Get the weekly edge report
The best-performing indicator per asset, what changed this week, and the honest caveats — straight to your inbox.