The best indicator for Agriculture (DBA)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Agriculture (DBA) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Bollinger Breakout
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Agriculture (DBA) over ~19.5 years — beating buy-and-hold by 1.7% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 3.0% | 0.36 | -21.6% | 53.3% | 15 | 1.7% |
| 2 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 3.3% | 0.33 | -34.6% | 30.2% | 43 | 2.0% |
| 3 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 3.0% | 0.33 | -26.4% | 38.1% | 21 | 1.8% |
| 4 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 4.1% | 0.44 | -27.4% | 60.0% | 10 | 2.8% |
| 5 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 1.9% | 0.22 | -41.7% | 25.0% | 44 | 0.7% |
| 6 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 3.2% | 0.34 | -35.5% | 44.4% | 9 | 2.0% |
| 7 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Daily | 1.3% | 0.2 | -19.7% | 36.0% | 75 | 0.1% |
| 8 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 1.9% | 0.22 | -47.9% | 38.5% | 13 | 0.7% |
| 9 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 1.5% | 0.19 | -35.9% | 42.6% | 54 | 0.3% |
| 10 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 1.3% | 0.17 | -44.5% | 35.9% | 64 | 0.1% |
| 11 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 1.1% | 0.16 | -31.9% | 32.7% | 104 | -0.1% |
| 12 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 1.0% | 0.15 | -36.6% | 33.8% | 74 | -0.3% |
| 13 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 0.9% | 0.14 | -45.8% | 38.1% | 42 | -0.3% |
| 14 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 0.8% | 0.12 | -40.5% | 39.1% | 92 | -0.5% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Agriculture (DBA), Bollinger Breakout on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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