The best indicator for Commodities (DBC)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Commodities (DBC) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Rate of Change
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Commodities (DBC) over ~20.4 years — beating buy-and-hold by 2.5% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 4.8% | 0.42 | -35.4% | 42.6% | 68 | 2.5% |
| 2 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 4.1% | 0.39 | -35.4% | 41.2% | 17 | 1.8% |
| 3 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 4.4% | 0.39 | -36.8% | 34.4% | 93 | 2.1% |
| 4 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 4.0% | 0.36 | -46.5% | 40.0% | 15 | 1.9% |
| 5 | Rate of Change ✓ | Daily | 3.4% | 0.32 | -31.8% | 42.4% | 297 | 1.3% |
| 6 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 2.7% | 0.32 | -29.5% | 42.3% | 26 | 0.5% |
| 7 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 3.3% | 0.31 | -42.5% | 41.5% | 41 | 1.0% |
| 8 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 3.2% | 0.3 | -39.1% | 28.3% | 46 | 1.1% |
| 9 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 2.9% | 0.29 | -40.7% | 26.6% | 64 | 0.6% |
| 10 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 3.1% | 0.29 | -42.3% | 31.7% | 60 | 0.8% |
| 11 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 2.5% | 0.28 | -39.1% | 42.1% | 19 | 0.2% |
| 12 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | 2.2% | 0.23 | -38.3% | 40.6% | 281 | 0.1% |
| 13 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 1.6% | 0.21 | -36.4% | 34.5% | 116 | -0.5% |
| 14 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Weekly | 1.9% | 0.2 | -33.7% | 43.1% | 188 | -0.4% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Commodities (DBC), Rate of Change on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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