The best indicator for Dividend (DVY)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Dividend (DVY) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Donchian Breakout
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Dividend (DVY) over ~22.7 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 2.9% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 6.0% | 0.64 | -20.4% | 64.7% | 17 | -2.9% |
| 2 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.3% | 0.64 | -24.8% | 54.5% | 11 | -1.6% |
| 3 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.6% | 0.65 | -38.4% | 70.0% | 10 | -1.3% |
| 4 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 4.3% | 0.42 | -29.2% | 45.3% | 53 | -4.6% |
| 5 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 3.7% | 0.39 | -36.0% | 54.3% | 46 | -5.1% |
| 6 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 4.1% | 0.36 | -47.2% | 73.1% | 78 | -4.8% |
| 7 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 3.5% | 0.34 | -38.3% | 51.9% | 77 | -5.4% |
| 8 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 3.3% | 0.33 | -36.6% | 48.3% | 60 | -5.6% |
| 9 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 3.2% | 0.33 | -42.8% | 83.3% | 24 | -5.7% |
| 10 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 3.4% | 0.33 | -44.4% | 50.0% | 68 | -5.5% |
| 11 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 2.1% | 0.3 | -24.5% | 72.0% | 25 | -6.8% |
| 12 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 2.5% | 0.28 | -42.3% | 43.7% | 323 | -6.4% |
| 13 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 2.8% | 0.28 | -42.1% | 79.2% | 96 | -6.1% |
| 14 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 2.3% | 0.28 | -29.3% | 45.5% | 101 | -6.7% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Dividend (DVY), Donchian Breakout on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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