The best indicator for Emerging Markets (EEM)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Emerging Markets (EEM) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
EMA 20/50 Cross
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Emerging Markets (EEM) over ~23.1 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.4% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 8.5% | 0.59 | -29.2% | 47.6% | 42 | -1.4% |
| 2 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 6.5% | 0.58 | -28.2% | 65.4% | 26 | -3.3% |
| 3 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 6.7% | 0.5 | -35.1% | 52.3% | 65 | -3.0% |
| 4 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 6.2% | 0.46 | -38.6% | 47.5% | 59 | -3.5% |
| 5 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 5.9% | 0.44 | -36.6% | 59.7% | 67 | -3.9% |
| 6 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 5.3% | 0.42 | -30.9% | 60.4% | 48 | -4.5% |
| 7 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 5.6% | 0.4 | -45.9% | 31.2% | 16 | -4.3% |
| 8 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 4.3% | 0.35 | -51.4% | 48.6% | 109 | -5.5% |
| 9 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Weekly | 4.1% | 0.34 | -42.4% | 53.3% | 227 | -5.7% |
| 10 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 4.1% | 0.31 | -51.3% | 44.4% | 18 | -5.8% |
| 11 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 3.7% | 0.28 | -43.2% | 67.8% | 118 | -6.3% |
| 12 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 3.7% | 0.3 | -62.5% | 35.7% | 14 | -6.0% |
| 13 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 3.1% | 0.27 | -47.9% | 37.8% | 320 | -6.8% |
| 14 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 2.8% | 0.26 | -41.1% | 40.9% | 22 | -6.9% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Emerging Markets (EEM), EMA 20/50 Cross on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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