The best indicator for Developed Markets (VEA)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Developed Markets (VEA) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Donchian Midline
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Developed Markets (VEA) over ~18.9 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.9% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 4.3% | 0.4 | -27.4% | 45.7% | 46 | -0.9% |
| 2 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 3.8% | 0.38 | -23.2% | 44.3% | 88 | -1.3% |
| 3 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 3.2% | 0.31 | -23.3% | 46.5% | 43 | -1.9% |
| 4 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 3.1% | 0.31 | -29.5% | 46.2% | 52 | -2.1% |
| 5 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 2.6% | 0.29 | -20.2% | 64.7% | 17 | -2.5% |
| 6 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 3.0% | 0.27 | -51.9% | 72.5% | 91 | -2.1% |
| 7 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 2.2% | 0.24 | -37.1% | 48.8% | 250 | -2.9% |
| 8 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Daily | 2.4% | 0.23 | -47.6% | 69.0% | 29 | -2.7% |
| 9 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 2.5% | 0.26 | -37.5% | 38.5% | 13 | -2.6% |
| 10 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | 2.4% | 0.24 | -51.7% | 64.3% | 14 | -2.8% |
| 11 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 3.0% | 0.29 | -35.7% | 54.5% | 11 | -2.1% |
| 12 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 1.4% | 0.21 | -17.1% | 60.0% | 25 | -3.8% |
| 13 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 1.7% | 0.19 | -38.3% | 68.2% | 88 | -3.4% |
| 14 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 1.5% | 0.18 | -38.2% | 76.5% | 17 | -3.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Developed Markets (VEA), Donchian Midline on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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