The best indicator for Core Emerging (IEMG)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Core Emerging (IEMG) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Rate of Change
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Core Emerging (IEMG) over ~13.7 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.8% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 4.4% | 0.41 | -30.9% | 50.0% | 38 | -1.8% |
| 2 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 4.0% | 0.41 | -18.8% | 71.4% | 14 | -2.2% |
| 3 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 3.9% | 0.36 | -27.6% | 43.3% | 30 | -2.4% |
| 4 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 3.6% | 0.34 | -29.2% | 36.1% | 36 | -2.7% |
| 5 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 3.7% | 0.33 | -32.5% | 58.8% | 51 | -2.6% |
| 6 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 3.2% | 0.32 | -25.8% | 43.3% | 67 | -3.0% |
| 7 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Daily | 3.1% | 0.3 | -38.3% | 71.4% | 21 | -3.1% |
| 8 | MACD | Weekly | 2.7% | 0.28 | -31.2% | 42.9% | 28 | -3.5% |
| 9 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 3.1% | 0.35 | -24.4% | 75.0% | 12 | -3.1% |
| 10 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 2.8% | 0.27 | -27.7% | 64.8% | 71 | -3.5% |
| 11 | Williams %R ✓ | Daily | 2.8% | 0.27 | -30.2% | 74.5% | 98 | -3.4% |
| 12 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Weekly | 2.3% | 0.25 | -29.7% | 50.4% | 135 | -3.9% |
| 13 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 2.2% | 0.24 | -30.2% | 38.7% | 194 | -4.1% |
| 14 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 2.2% | 0.24 | -32.3% | 41.0% | 39 | -4.0% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Core Emerging (IEMG), Rate of Change on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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