The best indicator for Emerging Markets (VWO)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Emerging Markets (VWO) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
EMA 20/50 Cross
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Emerging Markets (VWO) over ~21.2 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.1% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 5.7% | 0.44 | -35.1% | 46.9% | 49 | -1.1% |
| 2 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 5.2% | 0.42 | -38.7% | 40.3% | 62 | -1.6% |
| 3 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 3.7% | 0.39 | -22.3% | 58.6% | 29 | -3.1% |
| 4 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 4.8% | 0.39 | -31.4% | 56.9% | 65 | -2.0% |
| 5 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 4.6% | 0.38 | -31.2% | 47.5% | 40 | -2.2% |
| 6 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 4.2% | 0.35 | -32.9% | 37.3% | 59 | -2.6% |
| 7 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 3.9% | 0.34 | -32.8% | 47.4% | 19 | -2.9% |
| 8 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 3.6% | 0.32 | -48.1% | 45.0% | 100 | -3.2% |
| 9 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 4.1% | 0.32 | -44.7% | 35.7% | 14 | -2.8% |
| 10 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 3.6% | 0.29 | -50.8% | 50.0% | 16 | -3.2% |
| 11 | Donchian Breakout | Daily | 2.6% | 0.26 | -30.9% | 42.9% | 98 | -4.2% |
| 12 | Bollinger Breakout | Weekly | 2.1% | 0.25 | -30.0% | 40.9% | 22 | -4.6% |
| 13 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 2.2% | 0.22 | -34.7% | 68.8% | 16 | -4.6% |
| 14 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Weekly | 2.2% | 0.22 | -32.1% | 50.5% | 208 | -4.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Emerging Markets (VWO), EMA 20/50 Cross on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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