The best indicator for Germany (EWG)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Germany (EWG) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Donchian Breakout
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Germany (EWG) over ~30.3 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.1% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 5.1% | 0.46 | -32.9% | 56.0% | 25 | -1.1% |
| 2 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.1% | 0.45 | -35.0% | 36.4% | 66 | -0.2% |
| 3 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 5.3% | 0.4 | -40.4% | 40.0% | 20 | -1.0% |
| 4 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 3.9% | 0.4 | -23.1% | 48.7% | 39 | -2.3% |
| 5 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 4.9% | 0.4 | -43.1% | 42.0% | 143 | -1.3% |
| 6 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 5.3% | 0.39 | -55.6% | 50.0% | 20 | -1.0% |
| 7 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 4.9% | 0.39 | -44.0% | 52.4% | 63 | -1.3% |
| 8 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 4.6% | 0.37 | -39.4% | 45.2% | 84 | -1.7% |
| 9 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 4.7% | 0.37 | -41.1% | 42.4% | 85 | -1.6% |
| 10 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 4.6% | 0.34 | -47.4% | 69.8% | 159 | -1.7% |
| 11 | Bollinger Breakout | Weekly | 2.5% | 0.32 | -25.2% | 60.0% | 20 | -3.7% |
| 12 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 4.5% | 0.35 | -59.7% | 53.8% | 13 | -1.7% |
| 13 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 3.1% | 0.28 | -42.0% | 47.4% | 97 | -3.1% |
| 14 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 2.0% | 0.21 | -31.8% | 42.4% | 139 | -4.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Germany (EWG), Donchian Breakout on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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