The best indicator for Brazil (EWZ)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Brazil (EWZ) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
MACD
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Brazil (EWZ) over ~26.0 years — beating buy-and-hold by 4.0% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 10.1% | 0.55 | -45.4% | 55.3% | 47 | 4.0% |
| 2 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 9.2% | 0.53 | -61.7% | 53.9% | 102 | 3.0% |
| 3 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 8.4% | 0.48 | -47.1% | 50.4% | 117 | 2.3% |
| 4 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 8.6% | 0.47 | -45.5% | 49.1% | 57 | 2.4% |
| 5 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 8.5% | 0.47 | -62.8% | 56.3% | 71 | 2.3% |
| 6 | Donchian Breakout | Weekly | 7.0% | 0.44 | -55.9% | 38.1% | 21 | 0.8% |
| 7 | RSI Trend (>50) | Weekly | 7.4% | 0.43 | -53.3% | 43.4% | 76 | 1.3% |
| 8 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | 7.5% | 0.41 | -60.3% | 81.0% | 21 | 1.4% |
| 9 | EMA 50/200 Cross | Daily | 6.9% | 0.4 | -63.2% | 36.8% | 19 | 0.7% |
| 10 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | 6.7% | 0.39 | -51.7% | 37.0% | 346 | 0.5% |
| 11 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Daily | 5.1% | 0.38 | -54.8% | 44.2% | 104 | -1.1% |
| 12 | Rate of Change ✓ | Daily | 6.3% | 0.38 | -62.8% | 42.5% | 395 | 0.1% |
| 13 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 5.5% | 0.35 | -55.9% | 35.4% | 362 | -0.7% |
| 14 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 5.0% | 0.34 | -57.2% | 80.0% | 25 | -1.1% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Brazil (EWZ), MACD on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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