The best indicator for China Large-Cap (FXI)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real China Large-Cap (FXI) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Donchian Midline
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for China Large-Cap (FXI) over ~21.8 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.0% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 4.4% | 0.32 | -46.8% | 50.7% | 69 | -1.0% |
| 2 | RSI Trend (>50) | Weekly | 4.1% | 0.31 | -59.8% | 47.8% | 67 | -1.2% |
| 3 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 5.2% | 0.35 | -48.0% | 61.5% | 13 | -0.2% |
| 4 | Money Flow Index ✓ | Daily | 6.6% | 0.4 | -50.3% | 81.8% | 11 | 1.2% |
| 5 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Daily | 4.1% | 0.29 | -51.0% | 77.1% | 35 | -1.2% |
| 6 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 3.1% | 0.29 | -38.2% | 50.0% | 26 | -2.3% |
| 7 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 3.8% | 0.28 | -43.7% | 66.3% | 89 | -1.6% |
| 8 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 2.7% | 0.24 | -50.3% | 37.9% | 58 | -2.6% |
| 9 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 2.4% | 0.22 | -69.3% | 44.4% | 18 | -3.0% |
| 10 | MACD | Weekly | 2.4% | 0.22 | -45.1% | 59.1% | 44 | -3.0% |
| 11 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 2.0% | 0.21 | -33.1% | 68.8% | 16 | -3.3% |
| 12 | Rate of Change | Weekly | 1.6% | 0.18 | -58.7% | 52.0% | 75 | -3.7% |
| 13 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 2.8% | 0.24 | -63.8% | 27.3% | 11 | -2.6% |
| 14 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 0.9% | 0.14 | -50.3% | 68.0% | 25 | -4.4% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For China Large-Cap (FXI), Donchian Midline on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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