The best indicator for Gold Miners (GDX)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Gold Miners (GDX) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Bollinger Mean-Reversion
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Gold Miners (GDX) over ~20.0 years — beating buy-and-hold by 0.8% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 5.5% | 0.36 | -47.2% | 73.8% | 84 | 0.8% |
| 2 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 6.3% | 0.35 | -69.7% | 72.0% | 82 | 1.6% |
| 3 | CCI ✓ | Daily | 5.5% | 0.33 | -75.1% | 74.3% | 101 | 0.8% |
| 4 | MACD ✓ | Daily | 3.7% | 0.27 | -52.2% | 39.5% | 190 | -1.0% |
| 5 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | 3.7% | 0.27 | -63.5% | 57.9% | 19 | -0.8% |
| 6 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 3.2% | 0.25 | -45.7% | 73.3% | 30 | -1.5% |
| 7 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 3.1% | 0.25 | -71.1% | 66.7% | 114 | -1.5% |
| 8 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 2.4% | 0.22 | -69.0% | 41.3% | 46 | -2.1% |
| 9 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 2.2% | 0.21 | -63.5% | 72.0% | 25 | -2.3% |
| 10 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 1.8% | 0.2 | -63.5% | 75.0% | 24 | -2.7% |
| 11 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 2.7% | 0.24 | -54.8% | 41.7% | 12 | -1.8% |
| 12 | Williams %R ✓ | Daily | 1.4% | 0.19 | -77.3% | 68.1% | 135 | -3.3% |
| 13 | Money Flow Index ✓ | Daily | 1.3% | 0.19 | -60.0% | 62.5% | 16 | -3.4% |
| 14 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Daily | 0.5% | 0.16 | -62.1% | 67.6% | 34 | -4.2% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Gold Miners (GDX), Bollinger Mean-Reversion on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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