The best indicator for Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
RSI Mean-Reversion
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) over ~16.5 years — beating buy-and-hold by 4.6% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 6.6% | 0.4 | -47.8% | 80.0% | 25 | 4.6% |
| 2 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 6.5% | 0.37 | -53.9% | 68.1% | 72 | 4.5% |
| 3 | CCI ✓ | Daily | 5.6% | 0.33 | -75.7% | 67.1% | 82 | 3.6% |
| 4 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 4.7% | 0.3 | -70.1% | 64.2% | 67 | 2.7% |
| 5 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 5.0% | 0.34 | -49.6% | 66.7% | 12 | 3.0% |
| 6 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 3.4% | 0.26 | -60.5% | 78.9% | 19 | 1.3% |
| 7 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 2.9% | 0.25 | -65.3% | 32.4% | 37 | 0.9% |
| 8 | ADX / DMI | Daily | 3.0% | 0.24 | -43.2% | 39.6% | 96 | 0.9% |
| 9 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 2.4% | 0.24 | -58.6% | 88.5% | 26 | 0.4% |
| 10 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 2.1% | 0.22 | -71.2% | 37.1% | 35 | 0.1% |
| 11 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 3.0% | 0.25 | -58.8% | 38.5% | 13 | 0.9% |
| 12 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 2.0% | 0.21 | -67.2% | 66.7% | 18 | -0.0% |
| 13 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 1.3% | 0.2 | -80.8% | 64.0% | 89 | -0.7% |
| 14 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 1.6% | 0.19 | -47.3% | 35.3% | 68 | -0.4% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ), RSI Mean-Reversion on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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