The best indicator for Gold (GLD)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Gold (GLD) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
RSI Trend (>50)
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Gold (GLD) over ~21.6 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.0% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 7.6% | 0.59 | -32.4% | 37.0% | 54 | -3.0% |
| 2 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 7.3% | 0.59 | -39.5% | 45.9% | 61 | -3.3% |
| 3 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 8.6% | 0.63 | -35.7% | 42.9% | 14 | -2.1% |
| 4 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 6.4% | 0.56 | -34.2% | 51.1% | 45 | -4.2% |
| 5 | MACD ✓ | Daily | 6.2% | 0.53 | -23.3% | 44.2% | 217 | -4.5% |
| 6 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 6.4% | 0.53 | -36.4% | 55.1% | 69 | -4.2% |
| 7 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 6.4% | 0.53 | -39.6% | 45.2% | 104 | -4.2% |
| 8 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 9.1% | 0.65 | -31.8% | 41.7% | 12 | -1.6% |
| 9 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.4% | 0.5 | -34.1% | 44.0% | 50 | -4.3% |
| 10 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 5.7% | 0.5 | -29.7% | 36.4% | 22 | -4.9% |
| 11 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 5.7% | 0.5 | -43.5% | 55.6% | 18 | -4.9% |
| 12 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 4.7% | 0.46 | -36.0% | 45.8% | 24 | -5.9% |
| 13 | Money Flow Index ✓ | Daily | 3.6% | 0.42 | -22.1% | 80.0% | 15 | -7.1% |
| 14 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 3.9% | 0.41 | -25.9% | 68.0% | 122 | -6.8% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Gold (GLD), RSI Trend (>50) on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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