The best indicator for Biotech (IBB)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Biotech (IBB) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Bollinger Mean-Reversion
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Biotech (IBB) over ~25.4 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.6% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 5.3% | 0.48 | -31.0% | 72.7% | 22 | -1.6% |
| 2 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 5.4% | 0.37 | -55.6% | 71.6% | 95 | -1.3% |
| 3 | Money Flow Index ✓ | Daily | 5.2% | 0.37 | -61.8% | 62.5% | 24 | -1.5% |
| 4 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 4.6% | 0.36 | -39.3% | 54.1% | 111 | -2.3% |
| 5 | Williams %R ✓ | Daily | 4.4% | 0.33 | -42.7% | 76.2% | 172 | -2.3% |
| 6 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Daily | 4.3% | 0.33 | -45.6% | 78.0% | 41 | -2.3% |
| 7 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 3.3% | 0.32 | -47.5% | 75.0% | 24 | -3.6% |
| 8 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 3.6% | 0.3 | -39.3% | 67.3% | 107 | -3.1% |
| 9 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 3.6% | 0.3 | -45.8% | 69.0% | 126 | -3.0% |
| 10 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | 3.7% | 0.3 | -47.5% | 81.8% | 22 | -3.2% |
| 11 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 3.5% | 0.28 | -52.3% | 27.3% | 22 | -3.2% |
| 12 | EMA 20/50 Cross | Daily | 3.3% | 0.28 | -52.9% | 37.9% | 58 | -3.3% |
| 13 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 3.2% | 0.26 | -54.0% | 40.0% | 20 | -3.5% |
| 14 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 2.6% | 0.25 | -36.7% | 47.0% | 100 | -4.0% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Biotech (IBB), Bollinger Mean-Reversion on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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