The best indicator for 7-10Y Treasuries (IEF)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real 7-10Y Treasuries (IEF) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
MACD
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for 7-10Y Treasuries (IEF) over ~23.9 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.9% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 2.5% | 0.56 | -10.0% | 53.7% | 41 | -0.9% |
| 2 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 2.4% | 0.46 | -15.5% | 46.7% | 15 | -1.2% |
| 3 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 2.0% | 0.45 | -10.0% | 54.8% | 31 | -1.4% |
| 4 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 2.1% | 0.41 | -11.7% | 40.7% | 54 | -1.5% |
| 5 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) | Weekly | 1.5% | 0.4 | -21.0% | 84.2% | 19 | -2.0% |
| 6 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 1.9% | 0.38 | -11.5% | 58.8% | 17 | -1.6% |
| 7 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 1.6% | 0.37 | -10.1% | 43.5% | 23 | -1.8% |
| 8 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 1.8% | 0.36 | -14.2% | 51.6% | 64 | -1.7% |
| 9 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 1.7% | 0.36 | -12.3% | 45.5% | 77 | -1.8% |
| 10 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 1.3% | 0.35 | -6.9% | 50.0% | 24 | -2.1% |
| 11 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 1.5% | 0.32 | -14.0% | 50.5% | 111 | -1.9% |
| 12 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 1.3% | 0.29 | -15.5% | 50.0% | 74 | -2.1% |
| 13 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 2.8% | 0.52 | -11.4% | 62.5% | 8 | -0.7% |
| 14 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion | Weekly | 0.6% | 0.23 | -14.3% | 64.7% | 17 | -2.9% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For 7-10Y Treasuries (IEF), MACD on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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