The best indicator for Home Construction (ITB)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Home Construction (ITB) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
EMA 20/50 Cross
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Home Construction (ITB) over ~20.1 years — beating buy-and-hold by 2.6% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.5% | 0.4 | -56.9% | 45.0% | 40 | 2.6% |
| 2 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 5.6% | 0.35 | -62.6% | 52.8% | 36 | 1.7% |
| 3 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 5.3% | 0.35 | -39.1% | 44.0% | 91 | 1.4% |
| 4 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 4.4% | 0.32 | -48.5% | 37.7% | 53 | 0.5% |
| 5 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 4.5% | 0.31 | -55.6% | 58.0% | 50 | 0.7% |
| 6 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 3.9% | 0.29 | -51.4% | 69.6% | 79 | 0.0% |
| 7 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 3.9% | 0.29 | -52.1% | 50.0% | 14 | 0.0% |
| 8 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 2.9% | 0.26 | -33.5% | 35.7% | 28 | -1.0% |
| 9 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 3.4% | 0.25 | -60.9% | 68.8% | 16 | -0.4% |
| 10 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 3.0% | 0.25 | -53.7% | 43.8% | 16 | -0.9% |
| 11 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 3.0% | 0.25 | -69.3% | 39.7% | 58 | -0.9% |
| 12 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 2.8% | 0.24 | -52.6% | 26.7% | 15 | -1.1% |
| 13 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 2.7% | 0.23 | -52.0% | 65.3% | 101 | -1.1% |
| 14 | Williams %R ✓ | Daily | 2.6% | 0.23 | -55.8% | 66.2% | 130 | -1.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Home Construction (ITB), EMA 20/50 Cross on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
More etf
Get the weekly edge report
The best-performing indicator per asset, what changed this week, and the honest caveats — straight to your inbox.