The best indicator for iShares S&P 500 (IVV)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real iShares S&P 500 (IVV) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Donchian Midline
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for iShares S&P 500 (IVV) over ~26.2 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.9% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 7.6% | 0.69 | -27.3% | 51.9% | 54 | -0.9% |
| 2 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.6% | 0.63 | -27.3% | 53.1% | 49 | -1.9% |
| 3 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 5.9% | 0.63 | -25.6% | 66.7% | 21 | -2.6% |
| 4 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 6.0% | 0.59 | -19.5% | 59.1% | 66 | -2.5% |
| 5 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 8.3% | 0.68 | -33.9% | 69.2% | 13 | -0.3% |
| 6 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 5.5% | 0.54 | -29.6% | 53.7% | 67 | -3.0% |
| 7 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 3.3% | 0.48 | -13.7% | 52.6% | 19 | -5.2% |
| 8 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.6% | 0.63 | -33.4% | 72.7% | 11 | -0.9% |
| 9 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 3.6% | 0.43 | -30.0% | 47.8% | 115 | -4.9% |
| 10 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 3.0% | 0.42 | -19.6% | 60.5% | 38 | -5.4% |
| 11 | Rate of Change ✓ | Daily | 3.8% | 0.4 | -34.5% | 46.4% | 390 | -4.7% |
| 12 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 3.4% | 0.37 | -26.7% | 53.9% | 115 | -5.1% |
| 13 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 8.2% | 0.68 | -31.8% | 87.5% | 8 | -0.2% |
| 14 | MACD ✓ | Daily | 2.9% | 0.31 | -30.1% | 42.0% | 276 | -5.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For iShares S&P 500 (IVV), Donchian Midline on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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