The best indicator for Russell 1000 Value (IWD)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Russell 1000 Value (IWD) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
EMA 50/200 Cross
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Russell 1000 Value (IWD) over ~26.0 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.8% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.3% | 0.56 | -29.4% | 53.3% | 15 | -1.8% |
| 2 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 5.8% | 0.55 | -23.4% | 43.9% | 57 | -2.3% |
| 3 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 5.7% | 0.52 | -28.3% | 47.0% | 66 | -2.3% |
| 4 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 5.8% | 0.51 | -38.0% | 64.3% | 14 | -2.3% |
| 5 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 3.9% | 0.44 | -30.4% | 48.1% | 108 | -4.2% |
| 6 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 4.0% | 0.44 | -25.2% | 60.9% | 23 | -4.0% |
| 7 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 4.0% | 0.41 | -30.3% | 45.2% | 73 | -4.1% |
| 8 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 2.5% | 0.37 | -16.6% | 62.2% | 37 | -5.5% |
| 9 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 2.2% | 0.36 | -14.9% | 59.1% | 22 | -5.8% |
| 10 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 3.2% | 0.34 | -31.9% | 47.6% | 84 | -4.9% |
| 11 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 2.7% | 0.3 | -43.9% | 50.9% | 55 | -5.4% |
| 12 | Williams %R ✓ | Daily | 3.1% | 0.29 | -48.8% | 68.9% | 183 | -5.0% |
| 13 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 5.2% | 0.47 | -41.9% | 66.7% | 9 | -2.8% |
| 14 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 2.5% | 0.28 | -32.8% | 48.1% | 129 | -5.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Russell 1000 Value (IWD), EMA 50/200 Cross on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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