The best indicator for Russell 1000 Growth (IWF)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Russell 1000 Growth (IWF) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Donchian Breakout
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Russell 1000 Growth (IWF) over ~26.1 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.2% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 7.2% | 0.7 | -17.2% | 71.4% | 21 | -1.2% |
| 2 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 7.7% | 0.69 | -22.2% | 54.0% | 63 | -0.7% |
| 3 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 7.6% | 0.66 | -28.5% | 47.4% | 57 | -0.8% |
| 4 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.3% | 0.63 | -26.5% | 58.5% | 53 | -1.1% |
| 5 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 6.8% | 0.6 | -42.6% | 56.4% | 55 | -1.6% |
| 6 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 8.2% | 0.62 | -31.5% | 78.6% | 14 | -0.2% |
| 7 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 6.0% | 0.56 | -24.5% | 53.2% | 111 | -2.3% |
| 8 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 8.0% | 0.61 | -31.5% | 84.6% | 13 | -0.5% |
| 9 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 4.8% | 0.51 | -28.3% | 54.6% | 108 | -3.6% |
| 10 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Daily | 4.8% | 0.45 | -35.4% | 39.9% | 338 | -3.7% |
| 11 | Rate of Change ✓ | Daily | 4.9% | 0.45 | -35.7% | 44.8% | 388 | -3.6% |
| 12 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 3.8% | 0.41 | -28.8% | 60.5% | 38 | -4.6% |
| 13 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 3.9% | 0.39 | -36.4% | 58.2% | 55 | -4.5% |
| 14 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Weekly | 3.8% | 0.37 | -36.6% | 55.3% | 235 | -4.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Russell 1000 Growth (IWF), Donchian Breakout on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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