The best indicator for China (MCHI)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real China (MCHI) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Money Flow Index
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for China (MCHI) over ~15.2 years — beating buy-and-hold by 3.1% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Money Flow Index ✓ | Daily | 5.5% | 0.38 | -57.6% | 61.1% | 18 | 3.1% |
| 2 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 4.0% | 0.32 | -34.2% | 46.9% | 32 | 1.6% |
| 3 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 3.7% | 0.3 | -43.5% | 53.2% | 47 | 1.5% |
| 4 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 3.2% | 0.27 | -36.1% | 70.6% | 17 | 1.0% |
| 5 | Donchian Midline | Daily | 2.3% | 0.22 | -43.1% | 38.9% | 208 | -0.0% |
| 6 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 2.3% | 0.22 | -40.3% | 44.7% | 47 | 0.0% |
| 7 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Weekly | 2.5% | 0.22 | -57.2% | 84.6% | 13 | 0.3% |
| 8 | Rate of Change ✓ | Daily | 1.6% | 0.18 | -40.2% | 44.9% | 243 | -0.8% |
| 9 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 1.3% | 0.16 | -44.0% | 52.6% | 19 | -0.9% |
| 10 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 1.1% | 0.15 | -23.8% | 40.8% | 76 | -1.2% |
| 11 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion | Weekly | 1.4% | 0.17 | -37.4% | 61.5% | 13 | -0.8% |
| 12 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 2.3% | 0.21 | -40.5% | 40.0% | 10 | -0.1% |
| 13 | Donchian Breakout | Weekly | 1.1% | 0.14 | -45.2% | 50.0% | 14 | -1.2% |
| 14 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 0.7% | 0.13 | -34.9% | 66.2% | 65 | -1.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For China (MCHI), Money Flow Index on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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