The best indicator for S&P MidCap (MDY)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real S&P MidCap (MDY) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
EMA 20/50 Cross
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for S&P MidCap (MDY) over ~31.0 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.9% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.3% | 0.58 | -25.0% | 51.6% | 64 | -3.9% |
| 2 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 7.0% | 0.56 | -34.3% | 57.8% | 83 | -4.2% |
| 3 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 5.6% | 0.56 | -25.4% | 90.3% | 31 | -5.5% |
| 4 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.7% | 0.5 | -35.4% | 58.8% | 17 | -4.5% |
| 5 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 6.1% | 0.5 | -33.7% | 61.6% | 86 | -5.1% |
| 6 | Money Flow Index ✓ | Daily | 6.7% | 0.49 | -36.5% | 87.9% | 33 | -4.5% |
| 7 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 5.4% | 0.49 | -34.9% | 63.6% | 66 | -5.7% |
| 8 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Daily | 5.3% | 0.43 | -37.7% | 86.7% | 45 | -5.9% |
| 9 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 5.4% | 0.41 | -44.4% | 68.4% | 19 | -5.8% |
| 10 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 4.5% | 0.41 | -31.8% | 58.6% | 29 | -6.7% |
| 11 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 4.5% | 0.4 | -35.3% | 47.9% | 96 | -6.7% |
| 12 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 4.3% | 0.39 | -40.1% | 53.9% | 154 | -6.8% |
| 13 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 4.2% | 0.38 | -49.9% | 80.0% | 25 | -6.9% |
| 14 | Rate of Change ✓ | Daily | 4.2% | 0.37 | -45.7% | 44.8% | 491 | -7.0% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For S&P MidCap (MDY), EMA 20/50 Cross on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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