The best indicator for Nasdaq Futures (NQ)
We backtested 20 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Nasdaq Futures (NQ) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
SMA 50/200 Cross
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Nasdaq Futures (NQ) over ~25.8 years — beating buy-and-hold by 2.2% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 10.6% | 0.7 | -28.2% | 75.0% | 16 | 2.2% |
| 2 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 8.8% | 0.66 | -24.4% | 47.3% | 55 | 0.5% |
| 3 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 10.7% | 0.7 | -28.2% | 64.3% | 14 | 2.3% |
| 4 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 8.1% | 0.6 | -29.9% | 59.7% | 62 | -0.1% |
| 5 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 7.8% | 0.59 | -25.3% | 54.2% | 72 | -0.4% |
| 6 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 6.6% | 0.55 | -18.4% | 72.7% | 22 | -1.6% |
| 7 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.4% | 0.49 | -26.6% | 44.1% | 59 | -2.0% |
| 8 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 5.7% | 0.46 | -36.8% | 53.2% | 109 | -2.5% |
| 9 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | 5.7% | 0.44 | -32.5% | 40.2% | 326 | -2.7% |
| 10 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 3.9% | 0.42 | -19.9% | 56.0% | 25 | -4.3% |
| 11 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 4.5% | 0.38 | -46.7% | 54.4% | 57 | -3.7% |
| 12 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 3.2% | 0.36 | -23.8% | 51.4% | 37 | -5.0% |
| 13 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 3.5% | 0.33 | -35.6% | 46.4% | 110 | -4.9% |
| 14 | Rate of Change ✓ | Daily | 3.9% | 0.33 | -43.2% | 44.2% | 394 | -4.5% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Nasdaq Futures (NQ), SMA 50/200 Cross on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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